New Seat Details - Scarborough and Whitby

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Scarborough and Whitby been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
CON	25,634	49.0%
LAB	21,410	40.9%
UKIP	1,711	3.3%
LIB	1,455	2.8%
Green	965	1.8%
MIN	693	1.3%
OTH	461	0.9%
CON Majority	4,224	8.1%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Scarborough and Whitby: Map

List of old seats forming part of Scarborough and Whitby

Old seat: Scarborough and Whitby

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Scarborough and Whitby, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Scarborough and Whitby				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Scarborough	Castle	2,783	Scarborough and Whitby	952	1,205	45	89	67	0	67	45	2,470
Scarborough	Cayton	3,548	Scarborough and Whitby	1,302	688	28	73	17	0	19	13	2,140
Scarborough	Central	2,919	Scarborough and Whitby	882	1,474	109	88	60	0	25	16	2,654
Scarborough	Danby	1,583	Scarborough and Whitby	680	315	19	30	18	0	8	5	1,075
Scarborough	Derwent Valley	3,523	Scarborough and Whitby	1,469	679	69	69	20	0	13	9	2,328
Scarborough	Eastfield	3,879	Scarborough and Whitby	952	1,694	79	98	41	0	26	17	2,907
Scarborough	Esk Valley	3,413	Scarborough and Whitby	1,357	703	19	67	19	0	23	16	2,204
Scarborough	Falsgrave Park	3,410	Scarborough and Whitby	899	1,268	96	77	52	0	55	37	2,484
Scarborough	Fylingdales	1,635	Scarborough and Whitby	669	361	14	35	22	0	7	5	1,113
Scarborough	Lindhead	1,761	Scarborough and Whitby	739	339	14	20	9	0	12	8	1,141
Scarborough	Mayfield	3,640	Scarborough and Whitby	1,291	959	37	78	20	0	16	10	2,411
Scarborough	Mulgrave	2,698	Scarborough and Whitby	989	602	15	57	34	0	40	27	1,764
Scarborough	Newby	4,957	Scarborough and Whitby	1,737	1,185	136	113	72	0	56	37	3,336
Scarborough	North Bay	3,143	Scarborough and Whitby	1,043	1,140	43	91	62	0	64	42	2,485
Scarborough	Northstead	2,965	Scarborough and Whitby	856	937	111	80	27	0	51	34	2,096
Scarborough	Ramshill	2,707	Scarborough and Whitby	1,027	985	93	80	64	0	29	20	2,298
Scarborough	Scalby, Hackness and Staintondale	3,285	Scarborough and Whitby	1,317	552	21	59	35	0	17	11	2,012
Scarborough	Seamer	3,596	Scarborough and Whitby	1,258	893	98	87	50	0	17	11	2,414
Scarborough	Stepney	3,211	Scarborough and Whitby	972	1,073	98	87	59	0	20	13	2,322
Scarborough	Streonshalh	3,275	Scarborough and Whitby	961	1,215	39	80	46	0	24	16	2,381
Scarborough	Weaponness	2,749	Scarborough and Whitby	1,117	657	74	68	42	0	15	10	1,983
Scarborough	Whitby West Cliff	2,945	Scarborough and Whitby	1,005	880	37	66	23	0	19	12	2,042
Scarborough	Woodlands	3,083	Scarborough and Whitby	927	1,162	61	87	54	0	58	38	2,387
	Total	70,708		24,401	20,966	1,355	1,679	913	0	681	452	50,447

The full details of these calculations are given on the Scarborough and Whitby seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Thirsk and Malton

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Thirsk and Malton, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Thirsk and Malton				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Hambleton	Bagby and Thorntons	2,467	Thirsk and Malton	1,327	309	76	25	18	0	10	7	1,772
Hambleton	Easingwold	7,423	Thirsk and Malton	3,567	1,382	333	94	158	0	77	56	5,667
Hambleton	Huby	2,726	Thirsk and Malton	1,411	390	94	32	22	0	12	8	1,969
Hambleton	Morton-on-Swale	549	Richmond	263	89	18	6	4	0	2	1	383
Hambleton	Raskelf and White Horse	2,571	Thirsk and Malton	1,444	363	89	28	23	0	19	13	1,979
Hambleton	Sowerby and Topcliffe	4,675	Thirsk and Malton	2,436	943	226	72	41	0	61	44	3,823
Hambleton	Thirsk	4,919	Thirsk and Malton	2,418	1,038	226	73	44	0	56	40	3,895
Ryedale	Amotherby	1,479	Thirsk and Malton	757	283	59	19	12	0	19	13	1,162
Ryedale	Ampleforth	1,236	Thirsk and Malton	867	252	58	24	38	0	6	4	1,249
Ryedale	Cropton	1,253	Thirsk and Malton	565	220	47	16	11	0	15	11	885
Ryedale	Dales	1,062	Thirsk and Malton	570	165	40	11	12	0	16	12	826
Ryedale	Derwent	2,630	Thirsk and Malton	1,245	409	253	27	23	0	26	19	2,002
Ryedale	Helmsley	2,369	Thirsk and Malton	1,135	401	99	29	50	0	24	17	1,755
Ryedale	Hovingham	1,384	Thirsk and Malton	562	263	59	16	36	0	14	10	960
Ryedale	Kirkbymoorside	2,634	Thirsk and Malton	1,092	584	133	33	66	0	40	29	1,977
Ryedale	Malton	3,745	Thirsk and Malton	1,344	983	199	164	39	0	54	39	2,822
Ryedale	Norton East	3,060	Thirsk and Malton	990	726	348	111	23	0	29	21	2,248
Ryedale	Norton West	2,408	Thirsk and Malton	935	580	327	102	25	0	27	19	2,015
Ryedale	Pickering East	2,747	Thirsk and Malton	978	567	196	38	30	0	35	25	1,869
Ryedale	Pickering West	2,701	Thirsk and Malton	1,094	687	157	43	32	0	40	28	2,081
Ryedale	Rillington	1,332	Thirsk and Malton	506	311	56	56	33	0	21	15	998
Ryedale	Ryedale South West	1,320	Thirsk and Malton	731	167	45	12	11	0	4	3	973
Ryedale	Sherburn	1,505	Thirsk and Malton	649	331	60	61	36	0	8	5	1,150
Ryedale	Sheriff Hutton	1,345	Thirsk and Malton	676	217	56	16	13	0	14	10	1,002
Ryedale	Sinnington	1,381	Thirsk and Malton	667	205	52	16	28	0	5	3	976
Ryedale	Thornton Dale	2,616	Scarborough and Whitby	1,233	444	100	32	52	0	12	9	1,882
Ryedale	Wolds	1,461	Thirsk and Malton	732	228	40	16	11	0	8	5	1,040
Scarborough	Filey	5,255	Thirsk and Malton	1,732	1,304	256	227	131	0	71	51	3,772
Scarborough	Hertford	3,927	Thirsk and Malton	1,645	729	157	135	80	0	30	22	2,798
	Total	74,180		33,571	14,570	3,859	1,534	1,102	0	755	539	55,930

The full details of these calculations are given on the Thirsk and Malton seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Scarborough and Whitby

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Scarborough and Whitby
Ryedale	Thornton Dale	2,646	Thirsk and Malton	1,233	444	100	32	52	0	12	9	1,882
Scarborough	Castle	3,604	Scarborough and Whitby	952	1,205	45	89	67	0	67	45	2,470
Scarborough	Cayton	3,122	Scarborough and Whitby	1,302	688	28	73	17	0	19	13	2,140
Scarborough	Central	3,872	Scarborough and Whitby	882	1,474	109	88	60	0	25	16	2,654
Scarborough	Danby	1,568	Scarborough and Whitby	680	315	19	30	18	0	8	5	1,075
Scarborough	Derwent Valley	3,395	Scarborough and Whitby	1,469	679	69	69	20	0	13	9	2,328
Scarborough	Eastfield	4,240	Scarborough and Whitby	952	1,694	79	98	41	0	26	17	2,907
Scarborough	Esk Valley	3,215	Scarborough and Whitby	1,357	703	19	67	19	0	23	16	2,204
Scarborough	Falsgrave Park	3,624	Scarborough and Whitby	899	1,268	96	77	52	0	55	37	2,484
Scarborough	Fylingdales	1,623	Scarborough and Whitby	669	361	14	35	22	0	7	5	1,113
Scarborough	Lindhead	1,666	Scarborough and Whitby	739	339	14	20	9	0	12	8	1,141
Scarborough	Mayfield	3,518	Scarborough and Whitby	1,291	959	37	78	20	0	16	10	2,411
Scarborough	Mulgrave	2,570	Scarborough and Whitby	989	602	15	57	34	0	40	27	1,764
Scarborough	Newby	4,867	Scarborough and Whitby	1,737	1,185	136	113	72	0	56	37	3,336
Scarborough	North Bay	3,627	Scarborough and Whitby	1,043	1,140	43	91	62	0	64	42	2,485
Scarborough	Northstead	3,058	Scarborough and Whitby	856	937	111	80	27	0	51	34	2,096
Scarborough	Ramshill	3,352	Scarborough and Whitby	1,027	985	93	80	64	0	29	20	2,298
Scarborough	Scalby, Hackness and Staintondale	2,934	Scarborough and Whitby	1,317	552	21	59	35	0	17	11	2,012
Scarborough	Seamer	3,521	Scarborough and Whitby	1,258	893	98	87	50	0	17	11	2,414
Scarborough	Stepney	3,388	Scarborough and Whitby	972	1,073	98	87	59	0	20	13	2,322
Scarborough	Streonshalh	3,474	Scarborough and Whitby	961	1,215	39	80	46	0	24	16	2,381
Scarborough	Weaponness	2,894	Scarborough and Whitby	1,117	657	74	68	42	0	15	10	1,983
Scarborough	Whitby West Cliff	2,979	Scarborough and Whitby	1,005	880	37	66	23	0	19	12	2,042
Scarborough	Woodlands	3,482	Scarborough and Whitby	927	1,162	61	87	54	0	58	38	2,387
	Total	76,239		25,634	21,410	1,455	1,711	965	0	693	461	52,329

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Scarborough and Whitby. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Robert Goodwill (CON)
County/Area:	North Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	76,239
Turnout:	68.6%

Scarborough and Whitby: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Scarborough and Whitby: Overview

Introduction